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Track 1 Session 7
1:00 to 2:00 p.m. Thursday
June 21, 2007
Aircraft Engine Maintenance Cost
Optimization Through Fleet Simulation
This presentation describes
a method to simulate the aging of an aircraft engine fleet using
actuarial data for the engines and key embodied components, current
or planned maintenance policies and workscoping strategies, and
applicable failure distributions. A Monte Carlo routine used in
conjunction with probabilistic failure distributions simulates
unscheduled events and is compared to inspection criteria, life
limits, etc. in order to simulate future engine removals. The fleet is then
"aged," potentially several years into the future, and maintenance
decisions are made based on these simulated events as they occur.
For example, a "spare" engine would be selected to replace a
"removal" and the maintenance required for the removed engine is
determined based on a pre-selected workscoping strategy and/or an
optional workscope optimization routine.
The results of multiple simulations are averaged to determine the
most likely values for engine removals, cash flow, shop loading,
spares levels, etc., with appropriate confidence intervals. Results
may change depending on the initial assumptions made, maintenance
policies selected, and workscoping strategies employed. These
simulations allow aircraft fleet operators to evaluate the long-term
impact of various options to achieve the lowest maintenance cost per
flying hour.
Key Words: Simulation,
Aircraft, Engine, Maintenance, Cost-per-Flying-Hour, Monte Carlo
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