Track 3 Session 7
1:00 to 2:00 p.m. Wednesday June 10, 2009

Predicting and Managing the Safety and Reliability of Modern Technological Systems

In this presentation, we will show a new method for risk prediction, including the key element: human involvement. The method is validated by the available injury, accident, event and outcome data for major transportation, medical, industrial, aviation, chemical and fiscal systems. The probability of any outcome, and hence the reliability, is then predictable as we gain and learn from experience. We show how these learning concepts and methods can be applied to safety and risk management, a field of importance to executives and for corporate risk decisions. We tackle the difficult question of risk perception, and how we might actually measure it. Finally, we summarize the key points resulting from this new approach, including the legal as well as the personal ramifications relevant to risk management and minimization, and the role of human reliability.