Track 1 Session 12

9:15 to 10:15 a.m. Friday, June 15, 2012

Dynamic Reliability Modeling of Ameren Missouri Fossil Fleet - A Success Story

Alstom Power developed a unique dynamic modeling process for fossil power plants using reliability tools such as Weibull++ and BlockSim. Ameren Missouri, a Midwest utility, and Alstom collaborated in beta testing the process and tools at Ameren’s Labadie Power Plant. After successful testing of the process and tools, Ameren decided to use the process for the rest of their fossil fleet. This presentation shares the success story of how "Dynamic Reliability Modeling" is being used by Ameren Missouri in making objective decisions in outage management, allocation of budgets, setting up key performance indicators (KPIs) and prioritizing projects through future projection of equipment failure events and risk ranking. Ameren developed many what-if scenarios to predict the outcome of different scenarios to select the optimum solution. The presenters will share their experience with modeling, data collection, simulation results and some what-if scenarios.

Key Words: Process, Tools, Power Plant Equipment, Reliability Modeling, Static Analysis, Dynamic Analysis, Reliability, Event Data Analysis, Monte Carlo Simulation, Objective Decision Making, Allocation of Budgets, Future Reliability, Optimum Solution, What-if Analysis, Equipment Characteristics, Weibull, BlockSim, Reliability Block Diagram, Ameren Missouri, Alstom Power

S. Rao Palakodeti and Larry Dupre

Alstom Power

Plymouth, Michigan