North America

Red Room - Session 12

10:30 to 11:30 a.m. Thursday, June 5, 2014

Underground Electrical Cable Fault Forecasting Utilizing the Crow-AMSAA Reliability Growth Model

One of the major economic and reliability challenges facing the Salt River Project (SRP), a major electric and water utility in the Phoenix, Arizona metropolitan area, is managing the replacement of 7,000 miles of direct buried primary electrical cable that is at or approaching the end of its useful life. Since cable replacement programs of this magnitude will require 25 plus years to complete, the ability to model cable faults as a function of cable replacement is critical to developing a sound cable replacement strategy. To accomplish this task, SRP has developed a fault forecasting methodology based upon the Crow-AMSAA reliability growth model. This model has the ability to forecast electrical cable faults based upon replaced cable footage. When used within the underground electrical cable replacement simulation, also developed at SRP, 30 years of cable replacement can be evaluated for the entire direct buried underground electrical cable system to best optimize cable replacement budgets versus future faulting, hence, electrical system reliability.

Key Words: Crow-AMSAA, Simulation, Underground Electric Cable, Fault Modeling

Yancy Gill

Salt River Project

Phoenix, Arizona