North America

Red Room - Session 13

1:00 to 2:00 p.m. Thursday, June 5, 2014

Reliability Growth Planning for the Army: Models, Issues and Lessons Learned

Formal reliability growth is still a relatively new concept for the US Army and, as such, the models that are currently used to plan for reliability growth for Army systems are still new themselves. While reliability growth plans can be incredibly valuable for maturing systems’ reliabilities, there are numerous issues with the current reliability growth planning models that result in heightened program risks. This presentation discusses the currently accepted reliability growth planning model, AMSAA’s Planning Model for Program Methodology (PM2), as well as a newer and more capable planning model in AMSAA’s Bayesian Continuous Planning Model (BCMP). The detailed assumptions of these two models are presented along with the issues that result from these assumptions. This is presented to demonstrate the work that still needs to be done to improve how the US Army plans for growing the reliability of their systems. This is demonstrated through a thorough case study of the development of multiple reliability growth plans for a generic US Army system that captures how the planning model used influences how requirements need to be set.

Key Words: Reliability Growth, Army Reliability, Planning Model for Projection Methodology (PM2), Bayesian Continuous Planning Methodology (BCPM)

Daniel Kosinski


Warren, Michigan