Applied Reliability and Durability Conference
ARS is expanding and changing its name to the Applied Reliability and Durability Conference — visit the new ARDC website today!

North America

Green Room - Session 1

10:30 to 11:30 a.m. Tuesday, June 13, 2017

Surrogate-Based Reliability Assessment of Structures Under Fatigue Loading

Structural reliability problems involve more and more complex computer codes and the evaluation of the probability of failure may require very time-consuming computations. An important challenge in structural reliability is to keep to a minimum the number of calls to the numerical models. This paper proposes an efficient structural reliability framework by combining the advantages of surrogate modeling and Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) incorporated in a fatigue analysis of metallic structures to provide a probabilistic fatigue damage assessment. The surrogate Adaptive Kriging dimension reduction method is proposed to promote efficient implementation of the reliability analysis which can construct the PDF of the limit state function with favorable accuracy using a small number of analyses. The proposed strategy is found to be economic in the number of calls to the expensive performance function and its results are accurate for the damage calculation. Fatigue damage prediction case studies are used to demonstrate the proposed method.

Key Words: Structural Reliability, Probabilistic Fatigue Damage, Surrogate Modeling, Kriging, Uncertainty Analysis

Azadeh Keshtgar

Technical Data Analysis, Inc.

Falls Church, Virginia