Track 2 Session 5
9:10 to 10:10 a.m. Thursday, October 23, 2008

Reliability Prediction During Design and Development Cycle

The objective of this presentation is to share information about reliability prediction conducted at various phases of design and development work for an ammunition product. It covers techniques such as reliability allocation using equal apportionment and part count during the conceptual phase. During the prototyping phase, testing is conducted. Arrhenius, inverse power law and interference theory are applied to predict sub-system reliability. The overall system reliability is calculated from the bottom-up to verify whether the system reliability is achievable. To obtain qualitative limits, HALT & HASS are conducted prior to environmental qualification. Environmental qualification tests and discrete firing tests are conducted to demonstrate that the product meets the stated reliability and confidence.

Key Words: Reliability Allocation, Arrhenius Equation, Inverse Power Law, Interference Theory, HALT, HASS, Normal Approximation