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Track 2 Session 4
2:40 to 3:50 p.m. Wednesday
April 11, 2007
Risk Management of Warranty Contracts in
Machine Building Industry
Recently, the increasing customer
demand for longer and more extensive warranties has caused
additional expenses to the machine building industry. Several risks
arise from this situation especially because new warranty types are
required such as Reliability-Improvement-Warranties (RIW). In order
to control these risks, it is necessary to quantify them first
through the calculation of the warranty cost probability function.
Therefore deterministic as well as stochastic input elements need to
be considered. In this presentation, Weibull Analysis and Failure
Modes Effects and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) are used for the
reliability evaluation. The system's cost estimation applies the
Monte Carlo Simulation approach. Once quantified, the risks are
reduced through two approaches: bid optimization using a sensitivity
analysis and efficient machine optimization during the life cycle
based on the FMECA. The presentation concludes with a critical
reflection on the calculation accuracy and demonstrates the
applicability of the procedure by its usage in a machine tool
manufacturing company.
Key Words: Reliability
Analysis, Life Cycle Costing, Reliability Improvement Warranty,
Warranty Cost, Risk Management
Jürgen Fleischer
and Marc Wawerla
Institute of Production Science (wbk), Universität Karlsruhe
(TH)
Karlsruhe, Germany |
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