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Track 2 Session 6
10:20 to 11:30 a.m. Thursday
April 12, 2007
RAM-supported Financial Success of the
PPP-Project ‘HSL Zuid’ (NL) Based on EN50126
In this session, we present a
sensitivity/uncertainty-based approach for the estimation of
commercial risk due to deviation in the cash-flow-balancing caused
by a) the stochastic nature of non-conformity with penalized
reliability, maintainability and availability targets and related
payments, and b) the deviation of expected maintenance costs. This
discussion is based on experience with “Product/System Assurance” in
the PPP high speed railway project “HSL Zuid,” including overall
system optimization during the execution phase and preparation of
the maintenance plan for the operation phase. An integral part of
this was the specification and implementation of a performance
monitoring process as the basis for a) demonstration of project
performance, b) controlling the availability payment regime, c)
controlling the cash-flow balance during the 25 year maintenance
window, and d) analysis of RAM-relevant and commercial risk-relevant
impact factors for future projects, considering the stochastic
character of reliability, availability, maintainability and
maintenance related events and processes.
Key Words: Availability
Targets, Cash Flow, Commercial Risk Analysis, Consequence Analysis,
Demonstration Period, EN 50126, High Speed Line, Impairment
Analysis, Life Cycle Costs (LCC), Life Cycle Phase (LCP),
Maintainability, Maintenance, Monte-Carlo Simulation, Sensitivity
Analysis, Payment Regime, Product Assurance, Public Private
Partnership (PPP) Project, RAM, Railway, Requirements, System
Assurance, Uncertainty
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