Track 2 Session 6
10:20 to 11:30 a.m. Thursday April 12, 2007

RAM-supported Financial Success of the PPP-Project HSL Zuid (NL) Based on EN50126

In this session, we present a sensitivity/uncertainty-based approach for the estimation of commercial risk due to deviation in the cash-flow-balancing caused by a) the stochastic nature of non-conformity with penalized reliability, maintainability and availability targets and related payments, and b) the deviation of expected maintenance costs. This discussion is based on experience with Product/System Assurance in the PPP high speed railway project HSL Zuid, including overall system optimization during the execution phase and preparation of the maintenance plan for the operation phase. An integral part of this was the specification and implementation of a performance monitoring process as the basis for a) demonstration of project performance, b) controlling the availability payment regime, c) controlling the cash-flow balance during the 25 year maintenance window, and d) analysis of RAM-relevant and commercial risk-relevant impact factors for future projects, considering the stochastic character of reliability, availability, maintainability and maintenance related events and processes.

Key Words: Availability Targets, Cash Flow, Commercial Risk Analysis, Consequence Analysis, Demonstration Period, EN 50126, High Speed Line, Impairment Analysis, Life Cycle Costs (LCC), Life Cycle Phase (LCP), Maintainability, Maintenance, Monte-Carlo Simulation, Sensitivity Analysis, Payment Regime, Product Assurance, Public Private Partnership (PPP) Project, RAM, Railway, Requirements, System Assurance, Uncertainty