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Track 1 Session 3
1:00 to 2:00 p.m. Wednesday March 26, 2008
How Can Failure Rate Prediction Be Made
More Accurate?
Failure Rate Prediction (FRP) is
the most commonly used measure for product reliability. There exist
a variety of standards and tools to predict failure rates or
Mean-Time-Between-Failures (MTBF). However, such standards and
default component failure rate data are conservative and therefore
much worse than the actual field reliability observed based on field
returned data. This presentation shows how failure rate prediction
can be made more accurate and the results more realistic. The
following key areas will be discussed:
- Standards and Tools
- Supplier Data
- Design Derating Data
- Design Stress Data
- Field Data
- Service Life Estimation
- A View of the Future
The lesson learned is that failure
rate prediction is not just calculating a number. It is a highly
sensitive measure and the process behind shall always be aware of
the possible impact on life cycle cost in many areas of the product
life. Inaccurately predicted reliability may lead to higher costs
(e.g. high supplier warranty and field maintenance), which could be
avoided.
Key Words: Failure Rate
Prediction, MTBF, Service Life, FMEA, Reliability Standard
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