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Track 2 Session 7
1:00 to 2:00 p.m. Thursday March 27, 2008
Application Oriented Approach for the
Integration of Load Impacts in Reliability Analysis and Life Time
Prediction
Efficient production depends to a
great extent on the reliability and availability of the machines and
facilities used. As a consequence, mandatory reliability predictions
are demanded from equipment manufacturers within the scope of
availability guarantees and bids driven by life cycle costs. Due to the
fact that task-related stress has a great influence on the failure behaviour of production facilities, a methodology is presented which
allows, in a first step, a stress-related reliability analysis and
prediction on component level in the early stage of development.
Therefore, this methodology combines the results of a linear damage
accumulation calculation which is related to cyclic stress with a
two-parameter Weibull failure probability distribution based on
operating stage failure data. The combined failure distribution
provides information on the changes to reliability and availability
under different stress levels. In the second step, field data with
detailed stress collectives of the operating stage is analyzed using
the generalized log-linear model in order to verify the first step’s
prognosis of the early stage of the development. Finally, a method
is presented allowing the determination of the remaining lifetime of
a component to optimize the preventive maintenance actions. By
integrating more and more field data, it is possible to enhance the
accuracy of the prognosis by constant learning.
Key Words: Impacts of Load,
Linear Damage Accumulation, Generalized Log-Linear-Model,
Weibull-Bayesian Approach
Jürgen
Fleischer, Patrick Werner and Stephan Niggeschmidt
Institute of Production Science (wbk), Universität Karlsruhe (TH)
Germany |
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