Track 2 Session 4
2:20 to 3:20 p.m. Wednesday March 25, 2009

Reliability Based Spare Part Provision for the Machine Building Industry via Adapted Service Life Prediction

According to recent investigations, the sale of spare parts is a considerable key business in the after-sales market. In the machine building industry the profit margins of the service and spare parts business exceed the classical product business by a factor of ten. To reduce the probability of cost-intensive breakdowns, a constant availability of spare parts is necessary. The earning potential in the after-sales market can be exploited only if customers are supplied with specific spare parts within stipulated reaction times. However, especially in the machine building industry, the factors that influence the demand forecast of spare parts are diverse. The high number of models and variants of the machines and the simultaneously small number of sold units complicate an accurate prediction. Furthermore, the service life of single components is influenced to a great extent by different and variable loads depending on the production processes. Hence, most companies have to maintain high and expensive spare parts inventories to assure a certain availability. The presented approach aims at analyzing and predicting the service life of components depending on the load that is applied. This information is combined with logistic aspects such as delivery times or stock strategies. By using the approach, it is possible to predict the demand of spare parts more accurately. Optimal cost strategies for the provision of spare parts can be developed and evaluated. This helps companies reduce their expensive inventories of spare parts.

Key Words: Life Data Analysis, R&M Applications in Manufacturing, Reliability Modeling, Strategies for Spare Part Provisioning

Stephan Niggeschmidt
wbk Institute of Production Science, Universitt Karlsruhe (TH)
Germany