Track 2 Session 4

2:20 to 3:20 p.m. Wednesday March 23, 2011

Prediction Methods for Extremely Long Life, One-Shot, Non-Reparable Lighting Systems

Typical systems in lighting are non-repairable, mainly due to cost considerations. Starting from the more than 100 year old incandescent light bulb, and continuing with fluorescent and high intensity discharge systems, and more recently with LED systems, customers require a reliable lighting system that will function properly for a longer time, under a variety of conditions that might be quite sever. This implies the necessity of having adequate tools to acquire relevant reliability data — first for development and then for demonstration of the reliability goals. This mission is sometimes quite difficult because most of the physical-chemical phenomena occurring in these systems are such that accelerating factors cannot be used in a straightforward manner. What remains for the development engineer to handle the reliability issues? At GE, we have a rigorous Design for Six Sigma (DFSS) and Design for Reliability (DFR) process that guides the engineer through the development process. The presentation will cover some parts of this framework together with some typical methods for life models, simulation and prediction.

Key Words: Lighting, DFSS, DFR, FRACAS, Degradation Analysis, Crystal-Ball Simulation

Dr. Géza Szeghy

GE Lighting