2008 ARS, India
Track 2 Session 4

Reliability Estimation of Single Shot Missile Systems - Challenges and Approach

In modern times, the defence forces of every country aspire to obtain a weapon system that has a single shot kill probability of 99.9% and more. Thus, "Fire & Forget" type missiles are in vogue and have become the order of the day. Such a single shot missile system is a highly complex system, composed of state-of-the-art subsystems/packages effectively and efficiently packed in a strong, aerodynamically perfect but lightweight, airframe.

To achieve such a weapon system, it need not be emphasized that each and every subsystem/package must be highly reliable, meeting the requirements of Six Sigma. Therefore, in-depth reliability study and failure analysis have become inevitable to accurately predict the overall missile reliability and achieve the desired single shot kill probability. The challenges in estimating the magic figure of missile reliability are colossal. The major impediments that a reliability engineer encounters are the non-availability of a frozen configuration of the missile system, limited number of units available for tests, non-availability of time to failure, limited test data with no failures, operating time criticalities varying from milliseconds to seconds and the single shot nature of many subsystems and subsubsystems, which add on to complicate the issues.

This presentation describes endeavors to bring about “built-in” reliability and quality in the basic design of subsystems through design reviews at appropriate levels, testability studies, FMEA/CA studies, Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), Reliability Demonstration Tests (RDT), Failure Analysis Boards (FAB) and Reliability Growth Analysis.

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